Who is the Next Big Thing in Sports Collectibles?

By Adam McFarland

About 14 months ago I wrote an article predicting who the “next big thing” in Sports Collectibles would be. I recently looked back at it and realized I'd done a pretty good job and figured it would be fun to do it again.

Back then David Wright hadn't played a full season in the majors, Sidney Crosby and Ronnie Brown hadn't been drafted yet, and Josh Smith had just opened some eyes with his victory in the slam dunk contest. Fast forward 14 months and Wright and Crosby appear to be once-in-a-generation athletes, Brown is setting himself up for a monster second season with Ricky Williams' suspension, and Josh Smith ranked second in the NBA in blocked shots and averaged 11.3 points and 6.6 rebounds per game as a 20 year old. When it comes to collectibles Crosby has truly taken the world by storm, largely in part because of his multi-year contract with Upper Deck and their brilliant Where's Sidney? campaign.

So who's next? Here are my top athletes in each of the four major sports:

Baseball - Chris Shelton
If you asked me before the beginning of the season, I definitely would have gone with the Mariners electric phenom Felix Hernandez. But after his 3-6 start with a 5.59 ERA, I think I'll go with the insanely hot Chris Shelton. Shelton has started the 2006 season on a tear hitting .322 with 11 HR's and 28 RBI's with a .990 OPS while leading the Detroit Tigers to the best record in baseball. Shelton looks like more than a one year wonder (he hit .299-18-59 in only 107 games last year) and the collecting community is starting to notice – his 2004 Absolute Memorabilia Autographed Rookie Card is in the $30-$50 price range.

Basketball - Tyrus Thomas
In a matter of a week, Tyrus Thomas went from relative unknown to absolute stud during LSU's upset of Duke and Final Four run in this years NCAA Tournament. However, it's not his freakish ability to leap out of the building that makes him the next big thing, it's the fact that most mock drafts have him going to Chicago at pick number two. While LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, and Adam Morrison will likely be stuck in Toronto, Charlotte, and Portland, Thomas will be a young superstar on one of the best young teams in basketball.

Football - Adrian Peterson
This is the toughest sport because the draft just ended and it's too easy to pick Reggie Bush or Vince Young. So I think I'll go with next year's early favorite to be the number one pick - Adrian Peterson (assuming he leaves early of course). Oklahoma is stacked this year and ranked by many to be in the top 5. If Peterson, now injury free, returns to the form he was in his Freshman year, look out. Peterson rushed for nearly 2000 yards as a Freshman and had an “off” year last year when he rushed for over 1100 yards despite his many injuries and often with defenses stacking eight men in the box against him. If the 49ers are as bad as we all think they will be, look for Peterson to join Alex Smith and Vernon Davis as the young core of a dangerous offense.

Hockey – Erik Johnson
As good as my pick of Crosby was last year, I wish I had the foresight to see how talented Alexander Ovechkin would be. Since picking Ovechkin this year would be ridiculously unfair (he's already taken the collecting world, not to mention the whole hockey world by storm). Will there be another Ovechkin or Crosby in this draft – probably not. But scouts all agree that US defenseman Erik Johnson will be the number one pick in this years draft. Johnson (6'4", 225-pound) asserted himself by being one of the dominant forces at the 2006 World Junior Championships this year in Vancouver and will likely be picked number one by the St. Louis Blues at the draft on June 24th. The big question is not his ability, it's whether Johnson will be the type of defenseman that collectors embrace (Ray Bourque) or the type that wins Norris Trophies but never wins over collectors (Nicklas Lidstrom).